We're just over two months away from the start of the NFL season, which means that drafts for our home, work, and/or friend leagues will be here before we know it. Most of us will spend plenty of time reading articles about the top breakout, sleeper, and bust candidates. However, understanding the ADP landscape from a high level is just as important (if not more important) to navigating your draft and building the best possible team.
In this article, I will break down thecurrent ESPN ADP from a few different angles. We want to understand how the draft landscape has changed from last year, how positional scarcity develops based on current ADP, and which players are clear values right now by comparingFantasy Life rankings to current ADP.
Of course, it's barely July, and very few drafts have actually been done on platforms like ESPN and Yahoo. As the summer rolls on and we get more live draft data, I'll be giving regular updates on how the ESPN ADP landscape is shifting and explaining what opportunities create for us in drafts.
How has the draft landscape changed in 2024?
The biggest difference at the top of draft boards in 2024 is that you won't have to take the TE1 or QB1 in the first or early second round this year. In 2023,Travis Kelce was a mid-first-round pick, andPatrick Mahomes went off the board at the Round 1-2 turn. Kelce now goes late in Round 2 (ADP of pick No. 21.7 overall), and Josh Allen (27.2) and Mahomes (27.6), the top QBs off the board, generally aren't drafted until the early third round.
The top five QBs are all a bit less expensive this year, likely due to some disappointing performances from the highest-drafted QBs in 2023. This year, the QB5 (C.J. Stroud) is being taken at pick No. 45.7 overall, which is nearly a full round later than last year's QB5. If you like building a roster with an elite QB, the cost to do so is lower than it has been in recent seasons.
Jan 20, 2024; Baltimore, MD, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) warms up before a 2024 AFC divisional round game against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Interestingly enough,the WR mania from best ball drafts hasn't impacted ESPN ADP much, at least not yet. Whether or not drafters will push the WR position up the board as we get closer to Week 1 is a potential key trend that I'll be on the lookout for as we get more live draft data in the coming months. If that doesn't happen, later WR ADP could be an opportunity to exploit for those playing in PPR formats.
Right now, the number of RBs and WRs going in the first five rounds is nearly identical to last season on ESPN. With the NFL trending away from workhorse RBs and towards more pass-heavy offenses, this creates an opportunity for savvy fantasy managers. It's easier than ever to get solid RB production in the middle to late rounds of your drafts, and we know that some RB handcuffs are often able to step in and produce at a high level if/when a starter gets injured.
The same isn't true of the WR position, so targets generally get divided up if/when an elite WR misses time. Because of that, it's more important to ensure that we have plenty of quality WR starters coming out of drafts. If ESPN draft rooms aren't going to price WRs accordingly, one of the best ways to get an advantage on your league will be to draft a few strong WR options early and often through the first five or six rounds.
Where are some pockets of value?
Based on the current ESPN ADP, my favorite section of the draft board right now are the WRs available in late Round 3 through the end of Round 5.
This group usually consists of the WR15 through WR24 and is littered with tremendous talents. I would be happy to add any of these players to my roster at their current cost.
The other thing I love about this group is that there are many different player archetypes to choose from. If you want to take a swing on a potentially elite breakout WR1, you can draft Drake London,Nico Collins, orZay Flowers. If steady veteran production is more your style, guys like Cooper Kupp and Deebo Samuel are available.
Meanwhile,DK Metcalf,D.J. Moore,Brandon Aiyuk, andDeVonta Smith are all proven studs available at a discount due to target competition in their offense. You really can't go wrong with the WRs in this range, especially when you compare these players to the RBs being drafted around them.Alvin Kamara,Rachaad White,Kenneth Walker, andRhamondre Stevenson are all being drafted from pick No. 36 to pick No. 60 overall, and I'm pretty sure that I prefer every single WR shown above over that RB tier.
So how does this impact strategy in the first few rounds? The fact that there are so many great WRs available in this ADP range relative to RBs means that I want to target WRs heavily in those middle rounds. Ideally, I want to leave the first five rounds of my draft with four WRs. This means that I only have one early-round to use on a different position. Depending on your draft slot, I thinkChristian McCaffrey,Breece Hall, andBijan Robinson are all worthy of their early first-round ADP. With that anchor RB, you can then draft four straight WRs.
At the RB position, my favorite pocket of value comes just after the WRs I detailed above. This is ideal for roster building because it sets up well to take multiple WRs in a row before pivoting back to the RB position. There is one notable exception among the names in the screenshot below: Nick Chubb is being drafted too earlydespite the recent positive reports on his rehab. I'm willing to change my opinion on him if the positive reports continue, but for now, he would be a tier or two below this list for me and a clear fade at ADP.
As I mentioned earlier, I would love to start my draft with four WRs through the first five rounds, which means that I'd need to go after RBs heavily after that. Fortunately, there are plenty of targets in the RB20 to RB30 range, which corresponds with Rounds 6 to 8 in a 12-team league.
I definitely have some players that I like more than others in this group, but this is a really strong area of the draft to be grabbing multiple RBs in general. My top targets would beDavid Montgomery,James Conner, and eitherJaylen Warren orNajee Harris. That said, I could also make a really strong case forlast season's rushing TD leader, Raheem Mostert, as well as new Bengals RBZack Moss being great values.
I'd be comfortable with any combination of those RBs as my RB2 and RB3 if I started with an elite anchor RB in Round 1. It can be tempting to grab a RB falling past their ADP in Rounds 2 to 5, but it's important to remember the glut of strong RB options available in Rounds 6 to 8. Patience will be rewarded, and you can gain an advantage on the rest of your league at the WR position in the earlier rounds this way without sacrificing your RB room.
Which players are currently mispriced?
Ignoring the kickers and defenses, who are always drafted way too early based on default ADP, let's identify some of the most mispriced players in theESPN ADP compared to the Fantasy Life consensus rankings.
This can be helpful for understanding where the best values and biggest landmines are on your draft board. It also helps to know which players are fine to reach for if you like want to get multiple players that are currently in the same ADP range.
Players currently going too early on ESPN
Alvin Kamara
- ESPN ADP: 36.2
- Fantasy Life Rank: 56.3
While Kamara is still the Saints' starting RB, he's coming off the least efficient season of his career and will turn 29 years old later this month. His rushing efficiency has actually been terrible for three straight seasons, but he covered it up with decent rushing volume and strong production in the passing game.
Last season should be particularly concerning for those considering drafting Kamara, though, as his receiving efficiency plummeted compared to his historical averages.
Dec 21, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) runs the ball against the Los Angeles Rams during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Kamara doesn't have a ton of competition for touches, butKenDre Miller could emerge and steal touches after having missed most of his rookie season due to injury.
Drafting the veteran seems like a risky volume-based bet on an aging RB who has showed clear signs of decline in recent years. Kamara's current ADP of pick No. 36 overall is way too early, and I probably wouldn't be drafting Kamara much even if he were to fall to where our consensus rankings have him.
Evan Engram
- ESPN ADP: 64.9
- Fantasy Life Rank: 86.8
Engram posted career highs in targets, receptions, and yards in 2023 but only scored four TDs, which held back his fantasy value. The departure of Calvin Ridley means that Engram is nominally a top-two target in the Jaguars' offense, but he isn't without target competition. After all, Jacksonville signedGabe Davis anddraftedBrIan Thomas Jr. in the first round this offseason.
While there is still a chance that Engram could top his fantasy production from last season, he seems like a bad bet at his current ADP cost. He goes too close to the likes ofGeorge Kittle andDalton Kincaid, both of whom I much prefer over Engram. Plus, the opportunity cost of taking Engram over a WR in that range is too steep for me. This is a classic case of hating the ADP rather than hating the player.
Players currently going too late on ESPN
Malik Nabers
- ESPN ADP: 63.1
- Fantasy Life Rank: 30.8
The Giants probably won't be one of the most exciting offenses this coming season, but they did get one of the mostelectric rookie playmakers inMalik Nabers with the sixth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Given the lack of weapons in New York, the current gap in Nabers's ranking compared to his ADP just comes down to his projected role compared to his perceived role. Fantasy Life rankings project the rookie to be a significant impact player for the Giants from the get-go, but it seems like ESPN drafters are a bit more skeptical.
East Rutherford, NJ -- June 11, 2024 -- Wide receiver, Malik Nabers at the NY Giants Mandatory Minicamp at their practice facility in East Rutherford, NJ. Photo Credit: Chris Pedota, NorthJersey.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
I wouldn't be surprised to see Nabers move up draft boards quickly once training camp starts, and the inevitable camp highlight videos hit social media.
In fact,they're already starting to pop up, so don't be surprised when the Nabers hype train picks up speed this summer.
Drake London
- ESPN ADP: 35.0
- Fantasy Life Rank: 15.8
This was the most surprising player on this list. I just assumed that everyone was in on theFalcons hype train now thatKirk Cousins is in town, butDrake London is still a nice value in ESPN drafts. I expect Atlanta's passing game to take a huge leap forward in 2024, and so do my fellow rankers here at Fantasy Life.
London is poised to be one of the top breakout candidates this season as the primary target in Atlanta, and he's alreadyflashed serious talent in his first two seasons despite having suffered through some terrible QB play. With a massive QB upgrade in 2024, we should finally get to London's potentially elite ceiling, and our Fantasy Life rankers are betting on him to be a top-10 fantasy WR.
Check back in throughout the offseason for regular updates on how the ESPN ADP landscape is shifting and which players we should be targeting as a result.
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