The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Football Season: The 2024 Primer (2024)

Editor’s Note:Find out the full statistical projections for the Footballers Consensus WR1sin theUltimate Draft Kit.

For the eighth(!) year, our Fantasy Footballers writing staff can’t stop and won’t stop!

I am proud to kick off our annual “Path to WR1”series examining wide receivers who are currently ranked outside of thetop-15 receiversinAndy, Mike, and Jason’s initial WR projections. The goal is to give some reasoning and definition to our methodology in determining the likelihood of a top-12 fantasy season from a number of off-the-wall candidates.

Our team of writers will be hypothesizing about players that possibly have a shot at finishing the year as a WR1. In the past, we’ve identified some superb potential WR1 values before they were fantasy stars including Chris Godwin, A.J. Brown, and Ja’Marr Chase when he was a rookie. Last year,Javier Manzanera was dead on with Keenan Allen, who finished as a top-5 WR in points per game. (Zero bias here about mentioning Keenan :)

Let us be clear: we are NOT projecting a WR1 end-of-the-year total; instead, we are merely giving the high-end of the range of outcomes for players to show what type of ceiling is in the realm of possibilities. We poll our team of writers and take the consensus percentage of whether that WR is capable of churning out a WR1 season.

Each of these WRs brings a bit of optimism for 2024 and our job is simply to lay out the “path” to a top-12 finish. This journey ultimately comes down to projecting their target share, depth of those targets, receptions, yards, and TDs for the upcoming season. All of these statistical categories are defined and explained in this article.

Let us know on Twitter who your long shot WR1 candidates are using the #PathtoWR1 and tagging@TheFFBallers.

WRs Have a Range of Outcomes

This is a phrase we mention often: a range of outcomes.

Following the NFL Draft, our own Marvin Elequin penned arange of outcomesarticle on each of the major positions (2024RBs,WRs, andTEs) using college production metrics to “bucket” the prospects with other players. I took a historical approach mixing in some of the Ballers projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit examiningJayden Daniels and recent dynasty history.

Whether people like to admit it or not, projecting fantasy point totals is a guessing game. We forecast usage while also acknowledging the fact that we don’t have all the info. There are many offensive situations where predicting player usage has to be met with humility. We don’t know everything and we shouldn’t pretend we do. I wrote an article entitledForecasting 101: How to Project NFL Offenses Knowing You Could Be Wrong which highlights some of those points. There isn’t a perfect method but we are trying to set expectations regarding the possible results of a player while also recognizing there are so many more variables at play in football outside of our control. Whether it is off-the-field issues or issues with the coaching staff, each player also has intangibles that are immeasurable.

Ask yourself the following questions trying to write down anything from generalized reactions to actual counting fantasy numbers.

• What is the most likely outcome?
• What is the best case scenario?
• What are you counting on for your team?

WRs are co-dependent on QBs. We also must maintain that none of this can be done in a vacuum as projecting one player’s ceiling can also forecast doom and gloom on a fellow teammate. For instance, if you’re projecting someone likeGeorge Pickens to sneak into the WR1 territory in 2024, it inevitably must have an effect on his Steelers teammates. And perhaps somehow Russell Wilson or Justin Fieldsget it together.

The goal ofexploring a range of outcomes(and in this case the high-end) is to see how likely a WR can meet or exceed their draft position. That is how you spot draft values, swing for the fences, and cash in on the right player’s ceiling that wins you a league. I’ve also added the 5-Year averages of top-12 WRs just to give us a threshold to compare.

The Path for WR1s

Let’s go into thewhybehindwhatwe will be discussing in each WR1 profile.

Routes-Based Metrics

We talk all the time about how targets are earned; they show skill. Routes give context because they mix in opportunity (or lack thereof) for a WR. It is worth noting that route data is not widely available and is often found behind paywalls. Why? It is data and sites like PFF or FantasyPoints have put in a ton of time and hard work collecting this data. Please acknowledge how difficult tracking every single route in every single game in the NFL is and how it takes time and a desire for accuracy. In this study, I will mostly reference the route data available from Pro Football Focus.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)gives a well-rounded figure to work with as we are able to simply divide the total receiving yards by the number of routes they run on the field. It is less proneto outlier skewed stats (Yards per Target, Yards per Reception) but it’s not perfect. YPRR needs roughly 11 games or 180+ routes to start to stabilize for WRs.

It is worth raising a slight caution flag as YPRR inherently is biased as Underdog’s Hayden Winks noted. Some run-heavy teams (like the Falcons or Ravens) routinely trot out two or fewer WRs while teams like the Rams use 11-personnel like it’s going out of style. You can see how certain players are boosted based on formations likeDrake London. Keep in mind the sample sizes for this as well as London ran a TOTAL of 60 routes with 3+ WRs on the field, also known as 438 fewer thanCeeDee Lamb. (Thanks Arthur Smith!)

Overall,YPRR is heavily influenced by the number of WRs on the fieldand there are attempts to produce expected YPRR and adjusted YPRR figures asTej Seth of SumerSportsdetails. For the sake of this study, we will begin with the simple YPRR metric to compare past draft classes.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)is another metric we discuss frequently on theFantasy Footballers podcast. It measures how involved a player is and weeds out cardio kings such as the Colts’ Alec Pierce who might be the best-conditioned players on the field (605 routes run!) but shots in the dark for fantasy. TPRR closely follows target share but it gives us an even deeper look at team opportunity. When this player is running route, how often does their QB look their way? You might’ve seen the highlight of a long 60-yard TD the week before but when you peel back the curtain, Pierce might’ve been targeted just 10.4% of the time, an atrociously low figure. I wrote a primer on this stat way back in 2021 and one of our writers (AJ Passman) does aweekly article in-season.

Anything sub 20 percent is not optimal when you compare it to other WRs.At its core, TPRR is ameasure ofefficiency;it tells us a player’s ability either to get open or be a part of the offensive scheme. We say it often:earning targets is a skill.And that skill, expressed as TPRR, has a strong correlation with fantasy relevance. Since 2006, 92% of receivers who finished as a WR2 or better (top 24) had a TPRR of at least 20%.

You also have to ask questions to add context around TPRR:

• Is there competition for targets?Many offenses such as Washington may have multiple high-end targets. This is why players like Jahan Dotson can end up among the league leaders in routes run but rank so low in TPRR in target efficiency at 12.4 percent. In other words, other guys were commanding targets (Terry McLaurin & Curtis Samuel) and Dotson’s percentage plummeted.
• Is the efficiency off the charts?Efficiency is fun when it’s hitting in your favor every week but eventually, the lack of targets turn into 2-for-22 weeks.
• What type of routes are they running? The nine routes from guys like MVS or Jalin Hyattare going to draw very few targets.

All of that is to say that for young WRs, we expect there to be a slow burn. If you want a deep diver on routes-based metrics, I wrote a big article earlier this offseason (Dynasty WR Thresholds That Matter) putting Year 1 & Year 2 WRs in certain “buckets”.

Rate Statistics

Target Share– The target share, also known as market share, reveals a team’s total passing output and gives us a clearer picture of that receiver’s importance to the passing game expressed as a percentage. Targets have the highest correlation year-to-year for fantasy simply by acknowledging how involved a player will be and how much percentage of the passing pie they get. While we cannot predict usage fully, it’s important to note that a majority of WR1s need to see upwards of a 20% target share. Anyone seeing close to 30 percent is in a different stratosphere and almost a near locked-in WR1 finish.

However, not every target share percentage is created equal. Seeing 28.8% in the Titans offense in 2023 netted DeAndre Hopkins just 75 receptions (on 134 targets) while Tyler Lockett of the Seahawks caught four more passes (on 12 fewer targets) but only an 22.3 percent share. The percentage of the volume matters, especially because the Titans were a run-heavy team ranking 29th in neutral pass rate while Seattle ranked 4th. The size of the passing pies matter as I once detailed in Do Offenses Have Too Many Mouths to Feed?

Catch Rate–The catch rate of a WR shows how many of those targets get converted into receptions. We need these forprojections-sakebut forpredictions-sake, it honestly doesn’t tell us a whole lot about WR1 status.This statistic is not as “sticky” as others with some year-to-year fluctuations and is not nearly correlative at all to fantasy productions compared to the other counting stats. In other words, year-to-year fluctuations do happen in catch rate.

Use catch rate to convert targets to receptions but don’t use this percentage to distinguish who a WR1 could be by any means. We must take into account the type of routes run by wide receivers. Rashe Rice‘s 77 percent catch rate led all WRs in 2022 but when you think about the number of behind-the-line plays, drags, and slants, it’s not nearly as impressive. Compare that with the routes George Pickens ran and you can see that his 59 percent catch rate is actually nothing to shy away from especially considering his deep targets and end zone targets.

aDOT & Air Yards–Created by ESPN’s Mike Clay, the average depth of target (aDOT) is one of the better predictive metrics for WRs, especially over catch rate and yards per target. This stat is not dependent on the QB and captures that the depth of a receiver’s route is entirely about the pass-catcher. Wide receivers who run deeper routes and are targeted by the QB have opportunity for more yards. Sounds simple but remember, yards are more indicative of TDs despite the fact outliers such asTyler Lockett’s 2018 season when he had ten TDs on just 70 targets. aDOT can stabilize fairly quickly for WRs at only ten games. For instance, a WR likePickens has a career aDOT of 14.4. He has been consistently targeted down-the-field and therefore projecting within this range helps us with a piece of the puzzle in figuring out his yardage totals.

Another relevant metric in the family of aDOT isAir Yards. Essentially, think about Air Yards as the number of yards from point of release of the QB to the catch point- whether the ball is caught or not is irrelevant as air yards can be classified as “completed” or “incompleted”.

What air yards tell us isn’t onlyhow farthe ball traveled in the air butthe yards a receiver could’ve gained if he caught the ball. For instance,the aforementioned DeAndre Hopkins‘s end-of-season yardage total (1057) looks kinda fine but uninspiring. It ranked 21st and Hopkins felt like a middling WR3 for most of the year. However, he actually ranked 2nd in the league in total air yards (1905), just one behind Mike Evans and 2nd in deep targets. What this tells us is that the Titans (and Will Levis) left a ton of yards on the field as Hopkins’ catchable target rate (67.6%) was incredibly low (66th among WRs) due to poor targets or deep shots that never came to fruition. Air Yards aren’t a measure of how much distance the ball actually traveled. Instead, they measure the prospective yardsa receiver would have produced if he caught the ball and then was immediately tackled. In other words, they are a measure of intentions, which for fantasy is where we can start our projections.

Counting Stats

Receptions–In order to project a player’s fantasy finish, we need to see the possible range of outcomes and if you live in a PPR league, you know receptions drive so much of what your WRs do. In PPR leagues, this is how to find undervalued target mavens such as veteran Christian Kirk. As I stated earlier, projecting how a WR converts receptions from their targets isn’t an exact science. However, the goal of this series is to reveal a range of outcomes and not just one median projection. If I told you before the season that Garrett Wilson would finish with 168(!) targets and 95 receptions, you would’ve been jumping for joy. Wilson ended up with one of the most inefficient seasons ever for a WR. Whoops. Receptions are part of the equation but the quality also matters.

Garrett Wilson: MOST Targets Through 2 Years

Unlock the 2024 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Get the 2024 UDK

Garrett Wilson also: 66th in Yards per Target (6.8) among 72 WRs with 200+ Targets Through 2 Years pic.twitter.com/ZsnXrfoVo2

— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) January 4, 2024

Receiving Yards– Yards are another volatile statistic especially when you start using yards-per-catch (ypc) statistics to plug-and-play from previous years. There is variance. Changing a WR’s ypc can be the difference between another 1,000-yard season likeMike Evans or Zay Flowers‘ 858 despite the fact Flowers had just two fewer receptions than Evans. When it comes to projecting yardage totals, we’re trying to highlight a healthy range based on the team’s total pass attempts and the historical data from previous years.

We can say about yards that the higher the amount, the more touchdowns we can expect, and candidates who are due for more TDs in 2023. Our ownMarvin Elequin does a great job showing how TDs are volatile and that when you factor in expected fantasy points from 2023, yardage totals are a better stabilizing predictor. Players likeD.K. Metcalf or Michael Pittman Jr.are begging for some positive regression based on their opportunity and yardage (oh and those TDs). Eventually, things even out.

Touchdowns– Last but certainly not least is touchdowns. I wish I had a secret formula or years of data to prophesy this all-important category that makes or breaks your week. But finding the end-zone and predicting it is a fickle chore. As stated earlier, yards are a helpful marker towards projecting TDs for WRs. However,according to FantasyLabs, the Yards per TD rate has steadily declined over the last decade. Predicting TDs is a tough business.

So how do we project TDs?

Well, a good starting place is finding a healthy mix of analyzing the offensive system, the QB’s TD rate, and the number of total team TDs you have to play around with. There needs to be some variance in play. Red-zone warriors can overcome age gaps. Some players are TD monsters every year (Davante Adams) while others have shown that six or seven TDs is their ceiling such asKeenan Allen. Find a range of outcomes for each player. Double-digit TDs aren’t unheard of for players likeCooper Kuppor maybe a massive 2nd year jump for someone likeTank Dell.

WR1 Marks to Hit

After laying out the categories above, we need to give ourselves a bar to compare with raw projections. I looked at the last five years and compared who finished as a top-12 WR just to outline the type of thresholds we’re looking for in projecting someone on the high-end range.